23 Jun 1998 - 19:26:54 UTC 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 231924
MKC AC 231924

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 231930Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
MLS 40 WNW Y26 20 N STC 55 N IWD 15 WSW CMX 40 NNE GRB 30 E MSN 15
NE STJ 45 NE HLC 20 NNE AIA SHR 20 NW MLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
CEW 30 SW TOI 40 WNW ABY 25 SE SAV ...CONT... 35 NNW DAB 20 SSW
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRP 30 W CLL 10 W
TYR 20 SW MEM 15 ESE P02 10 SW VIH 25 W EMP 55 NW ABI 45 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF ROW 25 SSE
LBL 35 SSE MCK 30 E CYS 35 SW RWL 50 W MLF 50 ESE TPH 40 WNW BIH 35
ENE SAC 35 ESE MHS 40 N 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SSM MBL CGX 30
ENE LAF 25 ENE TOL.


LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SOUTHERN FRONT
EXTENDED ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...AND THE NORTHERN FRONT
LAY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.  

...NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS THE FRONT
RETREATS...AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.  AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.  SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THESE AREAS ARE
IN THE 1500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.  

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.
VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW STRONGLY VEERING WINDS...
INDICATING A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS
THE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. 

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA.  VAD WIND PROFILES OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA
SHOW FAVORABLE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.  
 
...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.  STRONG SURFACE
HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S HAVE YIELDED A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS /ON THE ORDER OF 35 DEGREES/...SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST
WINDS.  UPPER WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PULSE IN NATURE.  HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..REHBEIN.. 06/23/98

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